According to a new study published on Jan. 13 in “Nature Medicine,” the risk of developing dementia is increasing in the United States, and the rate of Black people living with the disease is expected to triple.
The new research challenges older studies, which estimated a lower risk of dementia, with about 14% of men and 23% of women developing the disease in their lifetime. “Just the fact that the population is going to get older will mean the number of dementia cases will double overall,” study leader Dr. Josef Coresh told NBC News. The study found that the average 55-year-old’s risk of developing the disease by age 95 was 42%, and overall dementia cases in the U.S. are expected to double by 2060, an increase to approximately 1 million compared to 514,000 in 2020.
For Black Americans, the risk is greater, and the population may see the number of cases triple. Researchers found a 7% risk for Black Americans by age 75, while the average person’s risk of developing the disease was 4% between ages 55 and 75. By age 85, the risk spiked to 28% for Black Americans compared to 20% for the average person.
A 2024 report by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that cases among Black adults are expected to hit 3.1 million in 2060. Higher rates for the group compared to their white counterparts included a higher prevalence of dementia risk factors like heart disease and diabetes, higher rates of poverty, and greater exposure to adversity and discrimination. The agency also revealed contributing factors to disparities like negative social attitudes toward patients from other races and unequal access to quality care and proper diagnosis. Disparities included unequal representation of Black people in clinical trials for the disease. BLACK ENTERPRISE previously covered a 2023 study that revealed that, on average, Black patients received MRI imaging tests for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias at around 72 years old, much later than white and Hispanic patients who received imaging in their 60s.
The “Lifetime Risk and Projected Burden of Dementia” cohort study tracked 15,043 people in the U.S. from 1997 to 2020. Black adults made up 26.9% of the study’s participants. It applied lifetime risk estimates to US Census projections to evaluate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060.
Dementia risk may seem higher than before due to older studies that lacked a diverse group of participants, found challenges with tracking participants who developed dementia, and only examined the most common type, Alzheimer’s disease.
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